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Liga 2 · Indonesia
Semen Padang vs PSMS Medan prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Semen Padang host PSMS Medan in the Liga 2 (Indonesia) on 17 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — PSMS Medan to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Semen Padang 1–1 PSMS Medan.
Going into the match, Semen Padang had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 19. PSMS Medan had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Semen Padang's last 10 and 5 of PSMS Medan's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Semen Padang averaged 0.17 goals scored and 2.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home PSMS Medan averaged 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from Semen Padang and 1.59 from PSMS Medan. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 53%, against 35%, 28% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Semen Padang (green) and PSMS Medan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semen Padang | LLWDW | 0.50 | 1.90 | 20% | 40% |
| PSMS Medan | LWWWD | 1.70 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.37 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| PSMS Medan Win | 36% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga 2 matches that day
- PSGC Ciamis vs PSIS Semarang · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Liga 2
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25 · FT 0–0 - PSBS Biak Numfor vs Persipura Jayapura · 17 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC · Liga 2
Published pick: Over 3.5 Goals - RANS Nusantara vs Persela Lamongan · 17 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC · Liga 2
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.60