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National League Cup · England
Scunthorpe vs Derby County U21 prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Scunthorpe host Derby County U21 in the National League Cup (England) on 13 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Scunthorpe 2–2 Derby County U21.
Going into the match, Scunthorpe had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 17. Derby County U21 had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 32 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Scunthorpe's last 10 and 8 of Derby County U21's last 10; 6 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Scunthorpe averaged 1.64 goals scored and 0.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Derby County U21 averaged 1.71 scored and 3.14 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.35 goals from Scunthorpe and 1.62 from Derby County U21. From that it rates a home win at 71%, a draw at 15% and an away win at 15%, against 57%, 21% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 87%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Scunthorpe (green) and Derby County U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe | LLWLL | 1.40 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
| Derby County U21 | LLLWD | 1.70 | 3.20 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.51 |
| Scunthorpe Win | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.71 |
| Scunthorpe HT & FT | 39% | 2.38 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.