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Bundesliga · Germany
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
SC Freiburg host FC Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04.
Going into the match, SC Freiburg had won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 33 and conceding 8. FC Schalke 04 had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of SC Freiburg's last 10 and 3 of FC Schalke 04's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home SC Freiburg averaged 2.92 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 13 matches; away from home FC Schalke 04 averaged 2.33 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.18 goals from SC Freiburg and 1.13 from FC Schalke 04. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 18%, against 59%, 24% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between SC Freiburg (green) and FC Schalke 04 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | WDWWW | 3.30 | 0.80 | 60% | 80% |
| FC Schalke 04 | WWDWD | 1.60 | 1.40 | 30% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| SC Freiburg Win | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.