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Serie A · Italy
Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sassuolo host AC Milan in the Serie A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sassuolo 1–1 AC Milan.
Going into the match, Sassuolo had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. AC Milan had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Sassuolo's last 10 and 6 of AC Milan's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sassuolo averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home AC Milan averaged 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.15 goals from Sassuolo and 1.97 from AC Milan. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 56%, against 21%, 26% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sassuolo (green) and AC Milan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · Sassuolo 2–0 AC Milan
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.