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Serie D - Girone G · Italy
Sarnese vs Paganese prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sarnese host Paganese in the Serie D - Girone G (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sarnese 2–1 Paganese.
Going into the match, Sarnese had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Paganese had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Sarnese's last 10 and 5 of Paganese's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sarnese averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Paganese averaged 1.83 scored and 1.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.41 goals from Sarnese and 1.19 from Paganese. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 30%, against 41%, 28% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sarnese (green) and Paganese (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.41 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.42 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Sarnese Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.