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Liga Profesional Argentina · Argentina
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sarmiento Junin host River Plate in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina) on 14 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sarmiento Junin 1–1 River Plate.
Going into the match, Sarmiento Junin had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 14. River Plate had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Sarmiento Junin's last 10 and 6 of River Plate's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sarmiento Junin averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home River Plate averaged 1.30 scored and 0.90 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.31 goals from Sarmiento Junin and 1.66 from River Plate. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 45%, against 16%, 29% and 55% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sarmiento Junin (green) and River Plate (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | WLDWL | 1.80 | 1.40 | 70% | 60% |
| River Plate | WLWWW | 1.50 | 1.00 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.62 |
| River Plate Win | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.