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USL League One · USA
Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sarasota Paradise host Charlotte Independence in the USL League One (USA) on 3 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.43, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sarasota Paradise 2–3 Charlotte Independence.
Going into the match, Sarasota Paradise had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 14. Charlotte Independence had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Sarasota Paradise's last 10 and 8 of Charlotte Independence's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sarasota Paradise averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Charlotte Independence averaged 1.64 scored and 1.86 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.78 goals from Sarasota Paradise and 2.02 from Charlotte Independence. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 43%, against 35%, 25% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sarasota Paradise (green) and Charlotte Independence (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota Paradise | WWDDW | 2.20 | 1.40 | 90% | 70% |
| Charlotte Independence | DWDWL | 2.30 | 1.70 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 Aug 2026 · Charlotte Independence 3–1 Sarasota Paradise
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.26 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.43 |
| Double Chance X2 | 63% | 1.41 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.66 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Charlotte Independence Win | 40% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.