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Serie A · Brazil
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sao Paulo host Vitoria in the Serie A (Brazil) on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Sao Paulo Win — Sao Paulo to win. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria.
Going into the match, Sao Paulo had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Vitoria had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sao Paulo's last 10 and 3 of Vitoria's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sao Paulo averaged 1.47 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Vitoria averaged 1.07 scored and 1.93 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from Sao Paulo and 1.09 from Vitoria. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 30%, against 57%, 26% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sao Paulo (green) and Vitoria (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Vitoria 2–0 Sao Paulo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Sao Paulo Win | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.