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Serie A · Brazil
Sao Paulo vs Santos prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sao Paulo host Santos in the Serie A (Brazil) on 2 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sao Paulo 1–2 Santos.
Going into the match, Sao Paulo had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Santos had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Sao Paulo's last 10 and 5 of Santos's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sao Paulo averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Santos averaged 1.53 scored and 1.29 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.16 goals from Sao Paulo and 1.34 from Santos. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 40%, against 47%, 28% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sao Paulo (green) and Santos (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Sao Paulo Win | 47% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.