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Liga 3 · Portugal
São João Ver vs Varzim prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
São João Ver host Varzim in the Liga 3 (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: São João Ver 2–1 Varzim.
Going into the match, São João Ver had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Varzim had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of São João Ver's last 10 and 6 of Varzim's last 10; 2 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home São João Ver averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Varzim averaged 1.25 scored and 0.88 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from São João Ver and 1.01 from Varzim. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 33%, against 33%, 29% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between São João Ver (green) and Varzim (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São João Ver | DDDLL | 0.70 | 0.90 | 50% | 20% |
| Varzim | LLLWW | 1.70 | 1.10 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| Varzim Win | 36% | 2.40 |
| 0-1 | 12% | 7.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.