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Serie A · Brazil
Santos vs Flamengo prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Santos host Flamengo in the Serie A (Brazil) on 8 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Santos 2–2 Flamengo.
Going into the match, Santos had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 13. Flamengo had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Santos's last 10 and 6 of Flamengo's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Santos averaged 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Flamengo averaged 1.87 scored and 0.73 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.09 goals from Santos and 1.62 from Flamengo. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 49%, against 21%, 26% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Santos (green) and Flamengo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.