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Segunda División · Chile
Santiago Morning vs Real San Joaquín prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Santiago Morning host Real San Joaquín in the Segunda División (Chile) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Santiago Morning to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Santiago Morning 1–2 Real San Joaquín.
Going into the match, Santiago Morning had won 1, drawn 6 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Real San Joaquín had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Santiago Morning's last 10 and 7 of Real San Joaquín's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Santiago Morning averaged 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Real San Joaquín averaged 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.41 goals from Santiago Morning and 1.08 from Real San Joaquín. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 28%, against 47%, 27% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Santiago Morning (green) and Real San Joaquín (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Morning | DDDDW | 0.90 | 1.20 | 60% | 40% |
| Real San Joaquín | LLDLD | 1.40 | 2.00 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 Aug 2026 · Real San Joaquín 2–2 Santiago Morning
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.82 |
| Santiago Morning Win | 49% | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.00 |
| Santiago Morning HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.