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Serie C · Brazil
Santa Cruz vs Maringá prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Santa Cruz host Maringá in the Serie C (Brazil) on 3 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Santa Cruz 1–1 Maringá.
Going into the match, Santa Cruz had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Maringá had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Santa Cruz's last 10 and 3 of Maringá's last 10; 2 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Santa Cruz averaged 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Maringá averaged 1.42 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.19 goals from Santa Cruz and 0.75 from Maringá. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 22%, against 41%, 30% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Santa Cruz (green) and Maringá (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | DWWWD | 1.10 | 0.70 | 40% | 20% |
| Maringá | DWLWW | 0.90 | 0.70 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Sep 2026 · Maringá 0–1 Santa Cruz
- 24 May 2026 · Maringá 1–1 Santa Cruz
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Santa Cruz Win | 41% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.