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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction and preview
26 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Santa Clara host Benfica in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 26 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Benfica Win — Benfica to win. It was published at odds of 1.38, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Santa Clara had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 6. Benfica had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 28 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Santa Clara's last 10 and 6 of Benfica's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Santa Clara averaged 1.92 goals scored and 0.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Benfica averaged 2.75 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Santa Clara and 1.61 from Benfica. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 48%, against 10%, 22% and 68% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 48%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Santa Clara (green) and Benfica (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | DWDWW | 1.70 | 0.60 | 40% | 50% |
| Benfica | WWWLW | 2.80 | 0.80 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 81% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Benfica Win | 69% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.