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Serie D - Girone D · Italy
Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sant'Angelo host Castellanzese in the Serie D - Girone D (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.31, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sant'Angelo 1–2 Castellanzese.
Going into the match, Sant'Angelo had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 9 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Castellanzese had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Sant'Angelo's last 9 and 6 of Castellanzese's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sant'Angelo averaged 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Castellanzese averaged 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.03 goals from Sant'Angelo and 1.24 from Castellanzese. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 40%, against 41%, 26% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sant'Angelo (green) and Castellanzese (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sant'Angelo | LDWDD | 1.00 | 1.11 | 67% | 33% |
| Castellanzese | WWLLW | 1.70 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Sant'Angelo Win | 41% | 2.32 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.