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Emperor Cup · Japan
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Iwaki in the Emperor Cup (Japan) on 7 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win — Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win. It was published at odds of 1.27, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Iwaki.
Going into the match, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 7. Iwaki had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Sanfrecce Hiroshima's last 10 and 5 of Iwaki's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sanfrecce Hiroshima averaged 2.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Iwaki averaged 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.52 goals from Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.58 from Iwaki. From that it rates a home win at 90%, a draw at 8% and an away win at 3%, against 70%, 18% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 90%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sanfrecce Hiroshima (green) and Iwaki (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | WWWLW | 2.60 | 0.70 | 50% | 60% |
| Iwaki | LLWWL | 1.00 | 1.70 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win | 70% | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1st Half Win | 55% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima HT & FT | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.