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Primera Nacional · Argentina
San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
San Martin Tucuman host Gimnasia Y Tiro in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 4 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — San Martin Tucuman to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro.
Going into the match, San Martin Tucuman had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 17. Gimnasia Y Tiro had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of San Martin Tucuman's last 10 and 3 of Gimnasia Y Tiro's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home San Martin Tucuman averaged 1.36 goals scored and 0.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Gimnasia Y Tiro averaged 0.80 scored and 1.07 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.18 goals from San Martin Tucuman and 1.00 from Gimnasia Y Tiro. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 30%, against 47%, 31% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between San Martin Tucuman (green) and Gimnasia Y Tiro (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martin Tucuman | DLWLD | 1.50 | 1.70 | 80% | 70% |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | WLDWW | 1.20 | 0.60 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–0 San Martin Tucuman
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS No | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| San Martin Tucuman Win | 47% | 2.00 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.