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Primera Nacional · Argentina
San Martin S.J. vs Almagro prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
San Martin S.J. host Almagro in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 4 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: San Martin S.J. 1–2 Almagro.
Going into the match, San Martin S.J. had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Almagro had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of San Martin S.J.'s last 10 and 5 of Almagro's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home San Martin S.J. averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Almagro averaged 0.82 scored and 1.73 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.56 goals from San Martin S.J. and 0.78 from Almagro. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 18%, against 56%, 27% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between San Martin S.J. (green) and Almagro (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martin S.J. | LWDLW | 1.10 | 0.80 | 30% | 30% |
| Almagro | LLDLW | 0.70 | 1.40 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Almagro 1–2 San Martin S.J.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS No | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| San Martin S.J. Win | 56% | 1.65 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.