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Primera B Metropolitana · Argentina
San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino de Merlo prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
San Martín Burzaco host Argentino de Merlo in the Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: San Martín Burzaco 2–1 Argentino de Merlo.
Going into the match, San Martín Burzaco had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 15. Argentino de Merlo had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of San Martín Burzaco's last 10 and 4 of Argentino de Merlo's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home San Martín Burzaco averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Argentino de Merlo averaged 0.77 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.33 goals from San Martín Burzaco and 0.97 from Argentino de Merlo. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 26%, against 42%, 31% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between San Martín Burzaco (green) and Argentino de Merlo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín Burzaco | LWWDL | 1.10 | 1.50 | 50% | 40% |
| Argentino de Merlo | LWLLD | 0.60 | 1.20 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 May 2026 · Argentino de Merlo 0–1 San Martín Burzaco
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.64 |
| San Martín Burzaco Win | 42% | 2.15 |
| San Martín Burzaco HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.88 |
| 1-0 | 16% | 6.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.