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Serie D - Girone E · Italy
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
San Donato Tavarnelle host Mezzolara in the Serie D - Girone E (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — San Donato Tavarnelle to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: San Donato Tavarnelle 1–1 Mezzolara.
Going into the match, San Donato Tavarnelle had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Mezzolara had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with 3 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of San Donato Tavarnelle's last 10 and 2 of Mezzolara's last 5; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home San Donato Tavarnelle averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Mezzolara averaged 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.26 goals from San Donato Tavarnelle and 0.62 from Mezzolara. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 17%, against 43%, 29% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between San Donato Tavarnelle (green) and Mezzolara (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Donato Tavarnelle | LLDWW | 1.40 | 1.00 | 70% | 40% |
| Mezzolara | DDWLD | 0.60 | 1.00 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.75 |
| San Donato Tavarnelle Win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.