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Erovnuli Liga · Georgia
Samgurali vs Gagra prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Samgurali host Gagra in the Erovnuli Liga (Georgia) on 11 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.66, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Samgurali 3–0 Gagra.
Going into the match, Samgurali had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 21. Gagra had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Samgurali's last 10 and 5 of Gagra's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Samgurali averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Gagra averaged 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.66 goals from Samgurali and 1.16 from Gagra. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 26%, against 45%, 26% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Samgurali (green) and Gagra (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Jun 2026 · Gagra 0–0 Samgurali
- 2 May 2026 · Samgurali 2–0 Gagra
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.66 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.90 |
| Samgurali Win | 46% | 2.00 |
| Samgurali HT & FT | 29% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.