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Serie C - Girone B · Italy
Sambenedettese vs Latina prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sambenedettese host Latina in the Serie C - Girone B (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sambenedettese 1–1 Latina.
Going into the match, Sambenedettese had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 16. Latina had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Sambenedettese's last 10 and 7 of Latina's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sambenedettese averaged 1.33 goals scored and 2.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Latina averaged 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Sambenedettese and 1.42 from Latina. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 39%, against 35%, 30% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sambenedettese (green) and Latina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sambenedettese | WLDLL | 1.40 | 1.60 | 80% | 70% |
| Latina | DLDLW | 1.60 | 1.30 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 55% | 1.68 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.67 |
| Sambenedettese Win | 35% | 2.55 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.