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Premyer Liqa · Azerbaijan
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Shamakhi City Stadium, Shamakhi
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Şamaxı FK host Neftchi Baku in the Premyer Liqa (Azerbaijan) on 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Neftchi Baku Draw No Bet — Neftchi Baku Draw No Bet. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Şamaxı FK had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Neftchi Baku had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Şamaxı FK's last 10 and 5 of Neftchi Baku's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Şamaxı FK averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Neftchi Baku averaged 1.92 scored and 0.83 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.24 goals from Şamaxı FK and 1.85 from Neftchi Baku. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 51%, against 16%, 25% and 59% implied by the 1X2 prices.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şamaxı FK | WLWDW | 1.80 | 1.20 | 80% | 60% |
| Neftchi Baku | DDDWW | 2.30 | 0.90 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 May 2026 · Neftchi Baku 3–0 Şamaxı FK
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Neftchi Baku Win | 60% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.