Home › League stats › Serie C - Girone C › Salernitana vs Bari
Serie C - Girone C · Italy
Salernitana vs Bari prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Salernitana host Bari in the Serie C - Girone C (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Salernitana 2–1 Bari.
Going into the match, Salernitana had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Bari had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Salernitana's last 10 and 2 of Bari's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Salernitana averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Bari averaged 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from Salernitana and 0.90 from Bari. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 33%, against 44%, 29% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Salernitana (green) and Bari (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana | LWDWD | 1.30 | 1.40 | 80% | 50% |
| Bari | WWDWW | 1.20 | 0.50 | 20% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.