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J-League Cup · Japan
Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sagan Tosu host Avispa Fukuoka in the J-League Cup (Japan) on 14 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Sagan Tosu to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sagan Tosu 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka.
Going into the match, Sagan Tosu had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Avispa Fukuoka had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sagan Tosu's last 10 and 6 of Avispa Fukuoka's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sagan Tosu averaged 2.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Avispa Fukuoka averaged 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Sagan Tosu and 1.14 from Avispa Fukuoka. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 32%, against 30%, 26% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sagan Tosu (green) and Avispa Fukuoka (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sagan Tosu | WLDLL | 0.90 | 1.20 | 40% | 30% |
| Avispa Fukuoka | WLDLL | 0.90 | 1.40 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.