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USL Championship · USA
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sacramento Republic host Colorado Springs in the USL Championship (USA) on 11 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sacramento Republic 1–1 Colorado Springs.
Going into the match, Sacramento Republic had won 4, drawn 6 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Colorado Springs had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Sacramento Republic's last 10 and 5 of Colorado Springs's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sacramento Republic averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Colorado Springs averaged 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Sacramento Republic and 0.93 from Colorado Springs. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 27%, against 48%, 28% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sacramento Republic (green) and Colorado Springs (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | DWWDW | 1.30 | 0.90 | 60% | 30% |
| Colorado Springs | DDDWL | 1.30 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 14 Jun 2026 · Colorado Springs 0–1 Sacramento Republic
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Sacramento Republic Win | 47% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.