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Birinci Dasta · Azerbaijan
Səbail vs Karvan prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Səbail host Karvan in the Birinci Dasta (Azerbaijan) on 8 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 52% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Səbail 1–1 Karvan.
Going into the match, Səbail had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 8. Karvan had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Səbail's last 10 and 3 of Karvan's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Səbail averaged 3.00 goals scored and 0.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Karvan averaged 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.60 goals from Səbail and 0.83 from Karvan. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 18%, against 50%, 26% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Səbail (green) and Karvan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Səbail Win | 49% | 1.80 |
| Səbail HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.