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HNL · Croatia
Rudes vs HNK Rijeka prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rudes host HNK Rijeka in the HNL (Croatia) on 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rudes 1–2 HNK Rijeka.
Going into the match, Rudes had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 27. HNK Rijeka had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Rudes's last 10 and 5 of HNK Rijeka's last 10; 9 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rudes averaged 1.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home HNK Rijeka averaged 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.21 goals from Rudes and 1.96 from HNK Rijeka. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 54%, against 14%, 22% and 65% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rudes (green) and HNK Rijeka (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudes | WDLWL | 1.50 | 2.70 | 70% | 90% |
| HNK Rijeka | LLWWD | 1.90 | 1.50 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Aug 2026 · HNK Rijeka 2–1 Rudes
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 81% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| HNK Rijeka Win | 68% | 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.