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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
RSD Alcalá host Navalcarnero in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — RSD Alcalá to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: RSD Alcalá 1–3 Navalcarnero.
Going into the match, RSD Alcalá had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 9 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 10. Navalcarnero had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of RSD Alcalá's last 9 and 5 of Navalcarnero's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home RSD Alcalá averaged 2.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Navalcarnero averaged 1.17 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from RSD Alcalá and 1.45 from Navalcarnero. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 43%, against 45%, 28% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between RSD Alcalá (green) and Navalcarnero (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSD Alcalá | LWLWD | 1.78 | 1.11 | 44% | 67% |
| Navalcarnero | WLWDW | 1.70 | 0.90 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| RSD Alcalá Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| RSD Alcalá HT & FT | 29% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.