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Serie D - Girone B · Italy
Rovato Vertovese vs Real Calepina prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rovato Vertovese host Real Calepina in the Serie D - Girone B (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.24, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rovato Vertovese 0–1 Real Calepina.
Going into the match, Rovato Vertovese had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 16. Real Calepina had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Rovato Vertovese's last 10 and 8 of Real Calepina's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rovato Vertovese averaged 2.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Real Calepina averaged 0.75 scored and 2.25 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.90 goals from Rovato Vertovese and 1.39 from Real Calepina. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 27%, against 37%, 25% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rovato Vertovese (green) and Real Calepina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rovato Vertovese | DDDLL | 1.30 | 1.60 | 60% | 50% |
| Real Calepina | LLDDW | 1.50 | 1.70 | 80% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.24 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.32 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.74 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.01 |
| Real Calepina Win | 38% | 2.51 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.