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Ligue 3 · France
Rouen vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rouen host Bourg-en-bresse 01 in the Ligue 3 (France) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rouen 2–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01.
Going into the match, Rouen had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 5. Bourg-en-bresse 01 had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Rouen's last 10 and 4 of Bourg-en-bresse 01's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rouen averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Bourg-en-bresse 01 averaged 0.33 scored and 1.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.56 goals from Rouen and 0.36 from Bourg-en-bresse 01. From that it rates a home win at 67%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 7%, against 60%, 25% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 87%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rouen (green) and Bourg-en-bresse 01 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rouen | LWWDW | 1.70 | 0.50 | 30% | 40% |
| Bourg-en-bresse 01 | DDLLL | 0.60 | 1.50 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Rouen Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.