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Romania vs Sweden prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Romania host Sweden in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 5 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Romania 0–1 Sweden.
Going into the match, Romania had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 14. Sweden had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 16 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Romania's last 5 and 8 of Sweden's last 9; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Romania averaged 2.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Sweden averaged 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded across 5.
The 1X2 prices imply about 22% for Romania, 24% for the draw and 54% for Sweden once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Romania (green) and Sweden (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Sep 2026 · Sweden 2–1 Romania
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Sweden Win | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.