Rodina Moskva vs Spartak Moscow prediction and preview

15 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Spartak Moscow WinOdds 1.46Market probability 65%Final score 2–4

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Rodina Moskva host Spartak Moscow in the Cup (Russia) on 15 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Spartak Moscow Win — Spartak Moscow to win. It was published at odds of 1.46, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Rodina Moskva 2–4 Spartak Moscow.

Going into the match, Rodina Moskva had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 26. Spartak Moscow had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 9 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of Rodina Moskva's last 10 and 7 of Spartak Moscow's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rodina Moskva averaged 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Spartak Moscow averaged 1.00 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Rodina Moskva and 2.30 from Spartak Moscow. From that it rates a home win at 16%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 64%, against 16%, 19% and 65% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Rodina Moskva (green) and Spartak Moscow (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form33% – 67%

Attack44% – 56%

Defence36% – 64%

Head-to-head0% – 100%

Goals15% – 85%

Overall strength39% – 60%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Rodina Moskva	LLWDL	1.00	2.60	70%	80%
Spartak Moscow	DWWLW	1.60	0.90	70%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

2 Sep 2026 · Spartak Moscow 3–1 Rodina Moskva
25 Jul 2026 · Spartak Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moskva

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
BTTS 1st Half - No	74%	1.25
Spartak Moscow Win	65%	1.46
Over 2.5 Goals	64%	1.48
Under 10.5 Corners	60%	1.52
BTTS Yes	57%	1.62
Under 3.5 Goals	57%	1.67
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	57%	1.65
Spartak Moscow HT & FT	48%	2.00

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.