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Premier League · Russia
Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg prediction and preview
19 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rodina Moskva host FC Orenburg in the Premier League (Russia) on 19 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg.
Going into the match, Rodina Moskva had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 26. FC Orenburg had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Rodina Moskva's last 10 and 5 of FC Orenburg's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rodina Moskva averaged 1.55 goals scored and 2.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home FC Orenburg averaged 1.14 scored and 1.50 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.61 goals from Rodina Moskva and 2.03 from FC Orenburg. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 47%, against 31%, 28% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rodina Moskva (green) and FC Orenburg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva | LLLWD | 1.10 | 2.60 | 70% | 80% |
| FC Orenburg | WWLWD | 1.50 | 1.00 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Aug 2026 · Rodina Moskva 1–4 FC Orenburg
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.43 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 59% | 1.58 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.84 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.