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Second League A - Division A Gold · Russia
Rodina Moskva II vs Kaluga prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rodina Moskva II host Kaluga in the Second League A - Division A Gold (Russia) on 4 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Rodina Moskva II Win — Rodina Moskva II to win. It was published at odds of 1.43, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rodina Moskva II 3–0 Kaluga.
Going into the match, Rodina Moskva II had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 9. Kaluga had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Rodina Moskva II's last 10 and 6 of Kaluga's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rodina Moskva II averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Kaluga averaged 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.68 goals from Rodina Moskva II and 1.03 from Kaluga. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 22%, against 67%, 20% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rodina Moskva II (green) and Kaluga (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva II | LWWLW | 1.80 | 0.90 | 50% | 60% |
| Kaluga | LLDWD | 1.30 | 1.10 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · Kaluga 0–0 Rodina Moskva II
- 27 May 2026 · Rodina Moskva II 1–2 Kaluga
- 8 Apr 2026 · Kaluga 1–1 Rodina Moskva II
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.26 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| Rodina Moskva II Win | 67% | 1.43 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.49 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.