Home › League stats › League Two › Rochdale vs Swindon Town
League Two · England
Rochdale vs Swindon Town prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rochdale host Swindon Town in the League Two (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rochdale 1–0 Swindon Town.
Going into the match, Rochdale had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 16. Swindon Town had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Rochdale's last 10 and 5 of Swindon Town's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rochdale averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Swindon Town averaged 0.78 scored and 2.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.72 goals from Rochdale and 1.20 from Swindon Town. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 26%, against 41%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rochdale (green) and Swindon Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | WDWDL | 1.20 | 1.60 | 40% | 60% |
| Swindon Town | DLLLL | 1.00 | 1.60 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.