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Süper Lig · Turkey
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rizespor host Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig (Turkey) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rizespor 0–3 Fenerbahçe.
Going into the match, Rizespor had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 10. Fenerbahçe had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Rizespor's last 10 and 6 of Fenerbahçe's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rizespor averaged 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Fenerbahçe averaged 1.77 scored and 0.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.92 goals from Rizespor and 1.73 from Fenerbahçe. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 55%, against 20%, 25% and 55% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rizespor (green) and Fenerbahçe (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | DWLWL | 1.30 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
| Fenerbahçe | WWDDL | 2.20 | 0.90 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 Apr 2026 · Fenerbahçe 2–2 Rizespor
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.