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Liga Revelação U23 · Portugal
Rio Ave U23 vs Moreirense U23 prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rio Ave U23 host Moreirense U23 in the Liga Revelação U23 (Portugal) on 6 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rio Ave U23 1–1 Moreirense U23.
Going into the match, Rio Ave U23 had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Moreirense U23 had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 6, with 9 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Rio Ave U23's last 10 and 5 of Moreirense U23's last 6; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rio Ave U23 averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Moreirense U23 averaged 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Rio Ave U23 and 1.22 from Moreirense U23. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 35%, against 43%, 26% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 44%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rio Ave U23 (green) and Moreirense U23 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave U23 | WDWLW | 1.00 | 0.90 | 30% | 20% |
| Moreirense U23 | DDWDL | 1.50 | 1.33 | 83% | 67% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 62% | 1.51 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Rio Ave U23 Win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Rio Ave U23 HT & FT | 27% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.