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Ligue 1 · France
Rennes vs Auxerre prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rennes host Auxerre in the Ligue 1 (France) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rennes 4–1 Auxerre.
Going into the match, Rennes had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 18. Auxerre had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Rennes's last 10 and 8 of Auxerre's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rennes averaged 1.91 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Auxerre averaged 1.57 scored and 2.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.28 goals from Rennes and 1.77 from Auxerre. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 30%, against 66%, 21% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rennes (green) and Auxerre (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Rennes Win | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.