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Serie C - Girone B · Italy
Reggiana vs Spezia prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Reggiana host Spezia in the Serie C - Girone B (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Reggiana 0–1 Spezia.
Going into the match, Reggiana had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 11. Spezia had won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Reggiana's last 10 and 6 of Spezia's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Reggiana averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Spezia averaged 1.71 scored and 1.29 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.70 goals from Reggiana and 1.33 from Spezia. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 51%, against 34%, 29% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Reggiana (green) and Spezia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.