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Serie D - Girone F · Italy
Recanatese vs Maceratese prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Recanatese host Maceratese in the Serie D - Girone F (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Recanatese to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Recanatese 2–3 Maceratese.
Going into the match, Recanatese had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 11. Maceratese had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 9, with 7 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Recanatese's last 10 and 4 of Maceratese's last 9; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Recanatese averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Maceratese averaged 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.20 goals from Recanatese and 1.48 from Maceratese. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 25%, against 42%, 29% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Recanatese (green) and Maceratese (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recanatese | LDWDD | 1.70 | 1.10 | 60% | 50% |
| Maceratese | DWLLL | 0.78 | 1.44 | 44% | 44% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Maceratese 2–1 Recanatese
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Recanatese Win | 42% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.