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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Real Unión vs UD Ourense prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Unión host UD Ourense in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Unión 1–1 UD Ourense.
Going into the match, Real Unión had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 18. UD Ourense had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Real Unión's last 10 and 3 of UD Ourense's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Unión averaged 2.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 5 matches; away from home UD Ourense averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.83 goals from Real Unión and 0.85 from UD Ourense. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 16%, against 67%, 21% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Unión (green) and UD Ourense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Unión | LDLWW | 2.10 | 1.80 | 80% | 70% |
| UD Ourense | DLLLL | 0.70 | 1.10 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Real Unión Win | 67% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Real Unión HT & FT | 47% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.