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Primera B · Colombia
Real Santander vs Union Magdalena prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Santander host Union Magdalena in the Primera B (Colombia) on 3 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Union Magdalena to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Santander 1–3 Union Magdalena.
Going into the match, Real Santander had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 15. Union Magdalena had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Real Santander's last 10 and 5 of Union Magdalena's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Santander averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Union Magdalena averaged 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.95 goals from Real Santander and 1.27 from Union Magdalena. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 43%, against 26%, 27% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Santander | DDLDW | 1.20 | 1.50 | 60% | 50% |
| Union Magdalena | DDWLL | 0.70 | 1.20 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Union Magdalena Win | 47% | 2.00 |
| Union Magdalena HT & FT | 31% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| 1-1 | 15% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.