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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Real Murcia vs Gimnastic prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Murcia host Gimnastic in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Murcia 2–0 Gimnastic.
Going into the match, Real Murcia had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 14. Gimnastic had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Real Murcia's last 10 and 5 of Gimnastic's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Murcia averaged 2.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Gimnastic averaged 0.25 scored and 1.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from Real Murcia and 0.78 from Gimnastic. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 14%, against 54%, 26% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Murcia (green) and Gimnastic (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Murcia | LWDLD | 1.80 | 1.40 | 80% | 70% |
| Gimnastic | LLWDW | 1.10 | 1.60 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Gimnastic 2–1 Real Murcia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Real Murcia Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.