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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Madrid III host Guadalajara in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (Spain) on 7 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Madrid III 1–1 Guadalajara.
Going into the match, Real Madrid III had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Guadalajara had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Real Madrid III's last 10 and 7 of Guadalajara's last 10; 2 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Madrid III averaged 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Guadalajara averaged 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.99 goals from Real Madrid III and 0.73 from Guadalajara. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 25%, against 35%, 29% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Madrid III (green) and Guadalajara (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid III | LLDDW | 0.50 | 1.10 | 20% | 20% |
| Guadalajara | DLWLL | 1.50 | 1.60 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Guadalajara Win | 36% | 2.50 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 7.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.