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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Real Madrid II vs Atlético Madrid II prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Madrid II host Atlético Madrid II in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 2 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Madrid II 3–2 Atlético Madrid II.
Going into the match, Real Madrid II had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Atlético Madrid II had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Real Madrid II's last 10 and 4 of Atlético Madrid II's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Madrid II averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Atlético Madrid II averaged 0.57 scored and 1.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.02 goals from Real Madrid II and 1.34 from Atlético Madrid II. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 24%, against 57%, 23% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 86%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Madrid II (green) and Atlético Madrid II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid II | LDLWD | 0.90 | 0.90 | 40% | 30% |
| Atlético Madrid II | LDWWD | 1.30 | 1.10 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Real Madrid II Win | 57% | 1.57 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.