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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Real Jaén vs Villarreal II prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Jaén host Villarreal II in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Jaén 3–3 Villarreal II.
Going into the match, Real Jaén had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Villarreal II had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Real Jaén's last 10 and 5 of Villarreal II's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Jaén averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Villarreal II averaged 2.25 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from Real Jaén and 1.18 from Villarreal II. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 28%, against 33%, 28% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Jaén | DLWWD | 1.20 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
| Villarreal II | LWDWW | 1.70 | 1.10 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.