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Primera B · Colombia
Real Cartagena vs Popayan prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 01:20 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Cartagena host Popayan in the Primera B (Colombia) on 4 Oct 2026, 01:20 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Real Cartagena Win — Real Cartagena to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Cartagena 2–3 Popayan.
Going into the match, Real Cartagena had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Popayan had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Real Cartagena's last 10 and 7 of Popayan's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Cartagena averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Popayan averaged 1.71 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from Real Cartagena and 1.38 from Popayan. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 25%, against 64%, 21% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Cartagena (green) and Popayan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Cartagena | DDLWL | 1.30 | 1.10 | 50% | 30% |
| Popayan | WWWDL | 1.70 | 1.30 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Cartagena Win | 64% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Real Cartagena HT & FT | 45% | 2.10 |
| 1-0 | 14% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.