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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
Real Ávila vs Numancia prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Ávila host Numancia in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Ávila 1–1 Numancia.
Going into the match, Real Ávila had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 17. Numancia had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Real Ávila's last 10 and 3 of Numancia's last 10; 7 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Ávila averaged 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Numancia averaged 1.17 scored and 0.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.66 goals from Real Ávila and 0.90 from Numancia. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 38% and an away win at 38%, against 32%, 30% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Ávila (green) and Numancia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Ávila | LWWLL | 1.20 | 1.70 | 50% | 70% |
| Numancia | DWDWW | 1.00 | 0.50 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Numancia 2–1 Real Ávila
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
| Numancia Win | 37% | 2.35 |
| 0-1 | 12% | 7.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.