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Frauen Bundesliga · Germany
RB Leipzig W vs Mainz 05 W prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
RB Leipzig W host Mainz 05 W in the Frauen Bundesliga (Germany) on 3 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is RB Leipzig W Win — RB Leipzig W to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: RB Leipzig W 5–0 Mainz 05 W.
Going into the match, RB Leipzig W had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Mainz 05 W had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of RB Leipzig W's last 10 and 4 of Mainz 05 W's last 10; 4 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home RB Leipzig W averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Mainz 05 W averaged 2.80 scored and 1.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.60 goals from RB Leipzig W and 1.42 from Mainz 05 W. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 19%, against 62%, 21% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between RB Leipzig W (green) and Mainz 05 W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig W | WLWDL | 1.10 | 1.60 | 60% | 40% |
| Mainz 05 W | WLLLL | 2.50 | 1.60 | 40% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| RB Leipzig W Win | 62% | 1.45 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.